Pronóstico: Which company has best AI model end of July?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market resolves on which firm owns the top-ranked model in the Chatbot Arena leaderboard when checked at 12:00 PM ET on 31 July 2026, with the current crowd assigning only 11% probability to a “yes” outcome for the implied favourite. This low valuation mirrors historical volatility in arena rankings: in early 2026, Anthropic’s Opus 4.6 briefly held #1 across text, code, and search leaderboards simultaneously—a feat no OpenAI, Google, or xAI model has replicated—yet its lead eroded within weeks as newer iterations from rivals surged [3]. Comparable cases show that even dominant models can lose top status quickly if release cycles stall or benchmark gains plateau, making early-season confidence a poor predictor of end-July standings.

Traders must watch for three catalysts: the release schedule of GPT-5.5 (expected late June), Anthropic’s planned Opus 4.8 update (announced 28 May, with coding gains of 69.2% on SWE-bench Pro) [1], and Google’s Gemini 3.2 preview, which could disrupt the current gap in search and code arenas [3]. Recent news from Artificial Analysis confirms Opus 4.8 now tops their Intelligence Index at 61.4, edging GPT-5.5, but notes that arena scores remain sensitive to user voting patterns and style-control filters [1]. Any delay in these releases or underperformance in head-to-head battles could shift the leaderboard dramatically before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.