Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently struggling to pass the Strait of Hormuz, with the latest seven-day moving average of daily transit calls sitting at just 2.57, far below the 60 required for this market to resolve as "Yes" [3][8]. This represents a catastrophic drop from pre-conflict levels of 75–125 calls per day, meaning traffic must surge roughly fivefold in the next 36 days to hit the threshold [7]. The crowd-implied 68% probability suggests traders are betting on a rapid geopolitical de-escalation, yet the historical baseline shows such a rebound is exceptionally rare without a formal peace accord.

Comparable cases from the Suez Canal indicate that seven-day averages rarely exceed 60 unless major strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen cease entirely [1]. President Trump has recently increased these strikes, which continues to disrupt shipping off the Yemen coast and suppresses transit numbers [1]. For the probability to hold, traders must watch for immediate announcements regarding a ceasefire in Yemen or a suspension of US military operations, as these are the primary catalysts that would allow tanker and cargo flows to resume [1]. Without a sudden shift in the regional security line-up, the current form of near-zero traffic makes a return to normal by July 31 highly improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.