Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pronóstico: china open, qualification: elsa jacquemot vs vivian wolff. This market refers to the tennis match between Elsa Jacquemot and Vivian Wolff in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Vivian Wolff. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: China Open, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemo… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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