Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Natus Vincere (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Natus Vincere (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Natus Vincere (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 90% |
| Match Winner | 79% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Natus Vincere (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-7.5) vs Natus Vincere (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: valorant: team vitality vs natus vincere (bo3) - vct emea group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Vitality and Natus Vincere in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 17 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →