Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 100% |
| Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. | 74% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 74% |
| Decision or Draw | 67% |
| Fight won by decision? | 64% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 55% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 50% |
| Ends before Round 5? | 25% |
| Barcelos in Round 4 | 19% |
| Barcelos in Round 5 | 19% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 4 | 17% |
| Barcelos to win by KO/TKO? | 14% |
| Rosas Jr. to win by KO/TKO? | 13% |
| Fight won by submission? | 13% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 5 | 12% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 5% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 5% |
| Ends before Round 4? | 5% |
| Barcelos in Round 1 | 5% |
| Barcelos in Round 2 | 5% |
| Barcelos in Round 3 | 5% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 1 | 5% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 2 | 5% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 3 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pronóstico: ufc fight night: raoni barcelos vs. raul rosas jr. (bantamweight, main card). This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $691K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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