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Pronóstico: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 91% O/U 1.5 Rounds 73% O/U 2.5 Rounds 61% Ends before Round 5? 55% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $955K Closes: 20 Sept 2026
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Pronóstico: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
91% 9% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
91% 9% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds91%
O/U 1.5 Rounds73%
O/U 2.5 Rounds61%
Ends before Round 5?55%
O/U 3.5 Rounds50%
Ends before Round 4?47%
O/U 4.5 Rounds44%
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van42%
Fight won by KO/TKO?40%
Ends before Round 3?38%
Fight to Go the Distance?37%
Fight won by decision?36%
Decision or Draw36%
Van to win by KO/TKO?34%
Fight won by submission?28%
Ends before Round 2?19%
Pantoja in Round 111%
Van in Round 210%
Pantoja in Round 29%
Van in Round 19%
Van in Round 58%
Van in Round 36%
Van in Round 46%
Pantoja to win by KO/TKO?5%
Pantoja in Round 34%
Pantoja in Round 44%
Pantoja in Round 53%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to pronóstico: ufc 331: alexandre pantoja vs. joshua van (flyweight, main card). This market will resolve to "Alexandre Pantoja" if Alexandre Pantoja is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joshua Van at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026. …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 91% for "Pronóstico: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 91% Other 9%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.0M.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Trade Pronóstico: UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Va… on Mundial 2026 Grupos

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Related Topics

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