Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| O/U 2.5 | 64% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) | 54% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) | 31% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-1.5) | 3% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 97% probability to pronóstico: fenerbahçe sk vs. sk puntigamer sturm graz - more markets. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 5 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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