Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently underway, with the knockout stage set to determine which four nations advance to the semifinals in Arlington and Atlanta on 14 and 15 July. For any team listed in this market, the 0% current probability implies they are already mathematically eliminated from contention, having failed to qualify for the knockout round or lost their opening group match in a way that removes all pathways to the last four.

Historically, teams reaching the semifinals are almost exclusively the pre-tournament favourites with deep squads and elite coaching, such as Spain, France, Argentina, England, and Brazil, who collectively hold over 50% of the supercomputer’s projected semifinal chances[2][3]. In past tournaments, nations starting with zero realistic pathways to the semis—often due to early elimination or poor qualifying form—have never defied the odds to reach the last four, making the 0% figure a factual reflection of their current status rather than a speculative estimate.

Traders should monitor official FIFA announcements confirming elimination status, particularly if a team loses its final group match or fails to qualify as one of the best third-place teams[10]. Key catalysts include injury updates on star players like Lamine Yamal for Spain or Kylian Mbappé for France, which could shift line-up strength and alter tournament trajectories[5]. Recent odds confirm France as the heavily favoured nation to reach the semis at -340, while teams outside the top 10, such as Egypt or Uzbekistan, face negligible chances[2][3]. Any confirmation of a team’s elimination will instantly resolve this market to "No".

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.