Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Extra Innings | 25% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs. In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for July 1 at 2:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This m…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $520K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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