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Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Argentina 44% France 42% England 7% Norway 3% Volume: $1.3M Liquidity: $632K Closes: 20 Aug 2026
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Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
44% 56% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
44% 56% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Argentina44%
France42%
England7%
Norway3%
Brazil2%
Spain2%
Mexico1%
Canada1%
USA1%
Belgium1%
Portugal1%
South Africa0%
Qatar0%
Scotland0%
Paraguay0%
Germany0%
Ivory Coast0%
Netherlands0%
Tunisia0%
Egypt0%
Saudi Arabia0%
Algeria0%
Uzbekistan0%
South Korea0%
Czechia0%
Switzerland0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina0%
Morocco0%
Haiti0%
Australia0%
Turkiye0%
Ecuador0%
Curacao0%
Japan0%
Sweden0%
Iran0%
New Zealand0%
Uruguay0%
Cape Verde0%
Senegal0%
Iraq0%
Austria0%
Jordan0%
Colombia0%
DR Congo0%
Croatia0%
Panama0%
Ghana0%
Country A0%
Country C0%
Country E0%
Country B0%
Country D0%
Other0%

Market context

The Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer prediction market currently prices this outcome at 44% YES. This market resolves to the nation represented by the player who finishes as the top goalscorer across all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will r…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
and

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