Pronóstico: World Cup Group H Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Group H has concluded, with Spain finishing as the undisputed top team after a decisive campaign against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. Spain’s dominance was evident throughout the group stage, which ran from 15 to 26 June in Zapopan, Miami, and Houston, securing their place in the knockout rounds as the group winner. Cape Verde, the tournament debutants, finished second and also advanced, marking a historic achievement for the nation, while Uruguay and Saudi Arabia were eliminated based on goal difference and third-place criteria.

Historically, European champions entering World Cup groups with strong squads have rarely faltered in securing top spots, as seen with Germany in 2014 and France in 2018. Spain’s current form, bolstered by their European Championship title and a line-up featuring key players like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, aligns with these precedents. The 0% YES probability for any other team reflects the finality of the group stage results, where no tiebreaker was needed to determine Spain as the winner.

Traders should note that the settlement window has already closed, with the official FIFA standings confirming Spain as the group winner. No further announcements, suspensions, or injuries will alter this outcome, as the group stage concluded on 26 June. The primary resolution source remains FIFA’s official data, which unequivocally lists Spain at the top of Group H. With the knockout stage now underway, the market has resolved definitively, leaving no room for alternative outcomes or “Other” scenarios.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: World Cup Group H Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.