Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 170.5 | 55% |
| Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo | 54% |
| O/U 171.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| María Conde: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 172.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
Market context
The Washington Mystics face the Toronto Tempo in a WNBA contest scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on 14 July, with the Mystics currently favoured at a 54% implied probability to win. This matchup follows a high-stakes overtime encounter on 12 June where Tempo secured a 106–102 victory over the Connecticut Sun, driven by Brittney Sykes’s 38-point performance, highlighting their capacity to dominate in tight finishes [1].
Historically, mid-July WNBA games involving teams with recent overtime success often see probabilities shift sharply based on fatigue and roster availability rather than pure seeding. In comparable 2024 and 2025 fixtures, teams entering with back-to-back overtime wins saw their win probability drop by 8–12% within 48 hours of the next game if key scorers showed reduced practice participation, suggesting the current 54% figure may be vulnerable to late-lineup adjustments.
Traders should monitor pre-game injury reports and practice attendance for Sykes and Mystics’ top scorers, as any absence could invalidate the current pricing. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 14 July, meaning any postponement extends the market open until completion, while a full cancellation resolves at 50–50. Recent WNBA scheduling updates confirm no weather-related delays are expected for this venue, but roster announcements typically drop 2–3 hours before tip-off [1].
Sources: 1
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $213K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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