Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 181.5 | 100% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Points O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| O/U 182.5 | 100% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 183.5 | 100% |
| O/U 180.5 | 100% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Las Vegas Aces secured a decisive 109-83 victory over the Toronto Tempo in their Monday night WNBA clash, with A’ja Wilson scoring 26 points and Jackie Young delivering a season-high 24 points alongside 12 assists [1]. This result confirms the Aces’ dominance in the fixture, aligning perfectly with the 100% crowd-implied probability that they will win the upcoming game scheduled for 20 July at 8:00PM ET.
Historically, the Aces have maintained a strong head-to-head record against the Tempo, having won 11 of their 15 meetings compared to the Tempo’s 9 wins in 19 games [2][3]. The 26-point margin in the latest encounter underscores a consistent performance gap, mirroring past seasons where the Aces’ superior depth and star power repeatedly overwhelmed Toronto’s developing roster, making a Tempo win an outlier event with negligible statistical backing.
Traders should monitor pre-game injury reports and lineup confirmations, particularly for Wilson and Young, whose availability directly influences the spread and outcome [4]. Although the game is set for 20 July, any postponement would keep the market open until completion, while a full cancellation without a make-up would resolve at 50-50 [1]. With the Aces covering the -10.5 spread in the latest odds, the catalyst remains their continued health and execution against a Tempo team that has struggled to contain their offensive output [5].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $228K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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