Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Natasha Cloud: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 99% |
| Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm | 92% |
| Spread -1.5 | 92% |
| Spread -2.5 | 89% |
| Dominique Malonga: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Natisha Hiedeman: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jade Melbourne: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ezi Magbegor: Points O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Dominique Malonga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Ezi Magbegor: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Natisha Hiedeman: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Natisha Hiedeman: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jade Melbourne: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Azurá Stevens: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dominique Malonga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Horston: Points O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Horston: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dominique Malonga: Points O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jade Melbourne: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Horston: Points O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Horston: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jade Melbourne: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ezi Magbegor: Points O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| O/U 176.5 | 29% |
| O/U 177.5 | 28% |
| O/U 179.5 | 26% |
| O/U 178.5 | 12% |
Market context
The Chicago Sky travel to face the Seattle Storm on 16 August in a late-season WNBA matchup with significant playoff implications. The 92% implied probability heavily favours Chicago, reflecting their superior record and recent form relative to Seattle's inconsistent performance through the 2026 season. Both teams' rosters remain largely intact heading into this fixture, though injury updates in the 48 hours before tip-off could shift the dynamics considerably.
Chicago's dominance in head-to-head records against Seattle over recent seasons has anchored the high probability, with the Sky winning three of their last four meetings. Seattle's struggles this year stem partly from inconsistent perimeter shooting and defensive lapses that have plagued them in losses to comparable opponents. The Storm's reliance on their core players means any late-team news regarding availability becomes critical; Seattle has managed injuries to key contributors throughout the campaign, and any fresh absences would further entrench Chicago's advantage.
Traders should monitor official team announcements through 15 August for injury confirmations or surprise roster moves. Weather conditions in Seattle rarely impact indoor WNBA play, but scheduling delays or postponements remain possible given the late-season fixture congestion. The settlement window closes at 21:00 ET on 16 August, giving traders approximately 16 hours post-game to confirm the final score. Recent form suggests Chicago's defensive intensity and three-point shooting consistency will likely determine the outcome, with Seattle needing near-perfect execution to overcome their current trajectory.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $226K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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