Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Paper Rex (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Paper Rex (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Paper Rex (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Paper Rex (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Paper Rex (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Paper Rex (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Paper Rex (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Paper Rex (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: valorant: paper rex vs nrg (bo3) - esports world cup group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Paper Rex and NRG in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 2 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Pape…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Pronóstico: Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - Espor… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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