Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 17% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 11% |
| Both Teams to Score | 9% |
| O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 3.5 | 2% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
Tromsø IL and FC Hradec Králové are due to meet in UEFA Europa League qualifying on 23 July, and the market is pricing the “more markets” side at just 11% YES. That is a low baseline for a qualifier that sits inside a single-leg, short-notice setup, where late team news, travel load and the final shape of the benches can matter more than broad season narratives.
The cleanest way to read such a price is through comparable early-round European ties: these markets tend to move sharply only when the listed extras are confirmed by team sheets, disciplinary news or a shift in match context, rather than by reputation alone. If either side is missing a first-choice defender, rotates heavily because of the schedule, or has to protect players before the return fixture or a domestic league game, the probability can re-rate quickly; if both managers go strongest available, the pre-match price is usually more stable. No verified injury, suspension or head-to-head information was available in the supplied results, so the main catalysts remain official line-up announcements, late squad updates and any confirmation of travel-related absences before kick-off.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Tromsø IL vs. FC Hradec Králové - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Tromsø IL vs. FC Hradec Králové - More M… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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