Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 75% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë (-1.5) | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Shamrock Rovers host KF Egnatia in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League qualifying tie at Tallaght Stadium, with the return in Albania a week later. The 100% YES price reflects a market that is already treating this as a completed event, but the underlying football still points to a live, competitive tie rather than a dead rubber: this is the first ever meeting between the clubs, and there is no head-to-head history to anchor expectations. [6][10][12]
On comparable form, both sides have been harder to beat than to dominate. Shamrock come in off a 0-0 draw with Drogheda, but their European run includes wins over Floriana and a 2-1 second-leg victory against Ararat-Armenia, while Egnatia have drawn both legs with Celje and also beaten Petrocub heavily in qualifying. That profile matters because it suggests the tie may be shaped by small margins, home advantage and whether Shamrock can convert control into a clear first-leg lead, rather than by one side arriving in obvious collapse. [1][7][8]
The main catalysts for any move are the confirmed line-ups, late fitness calls and any disciplinary news before kick-off, because neither club has much recent head-to-head evidence to absorb surprises. Shamrock’s recent schedule has included domestic and European fixtures in quick succession, so any rotation or minutes management could matter, while Egnatia’s travel and the second leg on 13 August mean game-state planning is likely to be conservative if they are level late. The market should also watch for team news from the final pre-match press cycle, as a single absence in a qualifying tie can shift the read sharply. [2][4][6][10]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Shamrock Rovers FC vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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