Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë (-1.5) | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Egnatia Rrogozhinë, the Albanian champions, face Irish side Shamrock Rovers in a UEFA Europa League qualifying round on 13 August. The fixture is a two-legged tie; the first leg determines whether additional markets settle or remain open pending the return match. The 100% YES probability reflects near-certainty that secondary markets (such as total goals, corner counts, or card markets) will be offered by the settlement deadline, contingent on the match proceeding as scheduled.
Historical precedent shows that UEFA Europa League qualifying matches rarely fail to occur once fixture lists are published and travel logistics confirmed. Egnatia qualified for this stage by eliminating Dinamo Tbilisi in the previous round; Shamrock Rovers advanced from their own qualifying path. Both clubs have completed domestic league campaigns and are in pre-season or early-season form. Recent squad news from either side—injuries to key defenders or suspension of attacking players—would shift individual match-outcome probabilities but would not prevent the match itself, and thus would not affect settlement of the "more markets" proposition.
Traders should monitor official UEFA announcements regarding fixture confirmation, pitch or weather-related postponements, and any travel restrictions affecting either club's passage to the neutral or designated venue. Shamrock Rovers' European fixture history shows consistent participation in qualifying rounds; Egnatia's domestic standing as Albanian champions provides financial and logistical stability. The settlement window closes shortly after the scheduled 3:00 PM ET kick-off, meaning confirmation of match commencement is the primary catalyst. No recent reports suggest complications to fixture integrity.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs. Shamrock Rovers FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade Pronóstico: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs. Shamrock Rover… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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