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Pronóstico: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Any Other Score 100% Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FC St. Gallen 0% Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 FC St. Gallen 0% Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 FC St. Gallen 0% Volume: $138K Liquidity: $502K Closes: 30 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Any Other Score100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 2 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 3 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 1 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 0 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 3 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 2 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 3 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 2 FC St. Gallen0%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 3 FC St. Gallen0%

Market context

Benfica’s home leg against FC St. Gallen sits in a familiar shape for an **Exact Score** market: the first meeting finished 2-1 to St. Gallen on 23 July, but Benfica arrived there off a strong domestic run and still carried the clearer scoring profile. Their recent league form included wins over Sporting and Estoril plus draws with Braga and Famalicão, while St. Gallen’s own run was mixed but productive, with wins against Basel, Lugano and Thun offset by heavier defeats in friendlies. Benfica also had the stronger broader European baseline, with recent preview data showing a higher goals-for rate and better defensive record than St. Gallen, which is why the crowd’s 0% YES pricing is hard to square with a narrow-home-win or high-scoring rematch being live possibilities.[1][5][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are team news and whether Benfica carry over any rotation from the first leg, because the exact score hinges on whether the match opens into a controlled home win or stays tight enough for another one-goal game. The first leg featured Benfica controlling possession and chances without converting enough, so line-up changes in attack or midfield are the biggest swing factor, alongside any late injury or suspension updates. The market also depends on this being resolved in 90 minutes only, with extra time and penalties excluded, so the live score at full-time is all that matters.[2][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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