Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
Market context
Benfica’s home leg against FC St. Gallen sits in a familiar shape for an **Exact Score** market: the first meeting finished 2-1 to St. Gallen on 23 July, but Benfica arrived there off a strong domestic run and still carried the clearer scoring profile. Their recent league form included wins over Sporting and Estoril plus draws with Braga and Famalicão, while St. Gallen’s own run was mixed but productive, with wins against Basel, Lugano and Thun offset by heavier defeats in friendlies. Benfica also had the stronger broader European baseline, with recent preview data showing a higher goals-for rate and better defensive record than St. Gallen, which is why the crowd’s 0% YES pricing is hard to square with a narrow-home-win or high-scoring rematch being live possibilities.[1][5][8]
For traders, the key catalysts are team news and whether Benfica carry over any rotation from the first leg, because the exact score hinges on whether the match opens into a controlled home win or stays tight enough for another one-goal game. The first leg featured Benfica controlling possession and chances without converting enough, so line-up changes in attack or midfield are the biggest swing factor, alongside any late injury or suspension updates. The market also depends on this being resolved in 90 minutes only, with extra time and penalties excluded, so the live score at full-time is all that matters.[2][4][5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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