Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK (-1.5) | 84% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Orgryte IS (-2.5) | 50% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS (-1.5) | 34% |
| Vasteraas SK (-2.5) | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score | 27% |
| O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 1.5 | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Västerås SK will host Orgryte IS in an Allsvenskan fixture on 24 July 2026, with the market currently pricing an 84% probability that additional betting markets will be offered for the match. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on the fixture date, meaning the resolution hinges on whether supplementary markets materialise before or during the broadcast window.
The 84% implied probability reflects the standard practice in Swedish top-flight coverage, where Allsvenskan matches routinely attract expanded market offerings as kick-off approaches. Historical precedent suggests that matches between established clubs in the league—particularly those scheduled for midweek or weekend slots with reasonable fixture prominence—typically see secondary markets added within 48 hours of the event. Västerås and Orgryte are both established Allsvenskan entities, making the baseline expectation for market expansion relatively high compared to lower-profile fixtures or cup competitions with thinner liquidity.
The key catalyst is confirmation of broadcast arrangements and any last-minute fixture changes. Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan scheduling announcements and the betting operator's market calendar for any indication of suspension, postponement, or reclassification that might affect market availability. Injury news or late team-sheet confirmations occasionally trigger expanded markets as bookmakers respond to trading demand, though these typically occur within 24 hours of the match. The settlement window's 17:00 UTC closure means any markets added after that point will not count towards resolution, creating a hard deadline for market operators to publish additional offerings.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Vasteraas SK vs. Orgryte IS - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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