Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| O/U 1.5 | 89% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score | 57% |
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 52% |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 34% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 23% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-1.5) | 3% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
IK Sirius host IF Brommapojkarna in Allsvenskan at Studenternas IP, with the market sitting close to even despite Sirius’ stronger season profile. Sirius beat Brommapojkarna 2-1 away on 12 July and 4-2 in the corresponding fixture last August, and the wider head-to-head trend also leans Sirius, who have won most of the recent meetings. That historical edge explains why the crowd is not heavily shading this towards Brommapojkarna even though the away side have shown enough attacking output in this matchup to keep the “more markets” pricing live rather than lopsided.
The key read-through for traders is whether Sirius can keep their current home momentum intact, because recent results and venue advantage have been the clearest drivers of their price. Brommapojkarna’s recent form has been more volatile, but they have still carried enough goal threat to matter in derivative markets, especially if Sirius rotate or lose a first-choice attacker late. The main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups and any late injury or suspension absences, since those will matter more here than the baseline table position; team sheets and pre-match updates close to kick-off are the most important watchpoint, with the fixture scheduled for 17:00 UTC at Studenternas IP.[2][3][5][7]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: IK Sirius vs. IF Brommapojkarna - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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