Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 89% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 87% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score | 53% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 49% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 38% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 22% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 4% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 2% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Allsvenskan fixture between Djurgårdens IF and Halmstads BK at Tele2 Arena on 13 July pits a top-half side in form against a struggling team fighting relegation, with the 60% crowd-implied probability for the “More Markets” outcome reflecting Djurgårdens’ dominance in this fixture. Historically, Djurgårdens hold a commanding head-to-head record with 20 wins from 35 games since 2003, including 13 victories overall, while Halmstads have won only nine and drawn eight [7][5]. In their last three home wins over Halmstads, Djurgårdens did not concede a goal, and they are currently unbeaten at home against this opponent, a trend that supports the market’s lean toward high-probability secondary outcomes like both teams scoring or over 2.5 goals [10].
Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, particularly for Kristian Lien, who has scored four times in his last six league appearances and is priced to score anytime [2]. Djurgårdens have failed to keep a clean sheet in four consecutive league matches, yet Halmstads have shown offensive capability despite poor form, making “Both Teams to Score” a likely catalyst [2]. With Djurgårdens seeing over 2.5 goals in each of their last five Allsvenskan outings, any late injury news or tactical shift from either manager could move the line significantly [2]. FootballWhispers’ preview notes a predicted 3-1 scoreline, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring contest that aligns with the current market probability [2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Djurgardens IF vs. Halmstads BK - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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