Pronóstico: Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima

Platform comparison

Market context

Sport Boys Association host Club Alianza Lima in Peru Liga 1, and the market’s **0% YES** price implies the away side is being treated as a near-certainty. The head-to-head record supports that scepticism: across the recent sample, Alianza Lima have the clear edge, with 11 wins in the last 17 meetings on FootyStats and 23 wins in 40 since 2005 on AiScore, while Sport Boys have won only 2 and 9 respectively.[2][1] Recent meetings have also tilted Alianza’s way, including 1-0 and 3-1 league wins in 2025, which matters because low-scoring away victories are exactly the type of result that can keep a favourite’s price compressed.[15][11]

The main variables for traders are whether Alianza Lima arrive with a rotated front line, whether any late injuries or suspensions hit their back four, and how much both sides’ schedules force changes from the previous weekend. The most recent logged results in the feed show Sport Boys beating ADT Tarma 2-0 and then winning 1-0 at Grau, while Alianza drew 2-2 at Comerciantes Unidos after beating Sport Huancayo 2-1, so neither side comes in with a dramatic momentum gap from those fixtures alone.[5] A late team-sheet surprise is the obvious line-moving catalyst here: if Alianza travel at close to full strength, the historical matchup makes the current 0% YES price easier to justify; if they rest key starters or lose a first-choice defender, the market is more exposed than the headline probability suggests.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Sport Boys Association vs. Club Alianza Lima. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.