Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New England Revolution O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-1.5) | 0% |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Toronto FC and New England Revolution meet in Major League Soccer on 15 August at 19:30 ET, with the fixture offering secondary market opportunities beyond the standard match outcome. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either waiting for clarification on what additional markets will be offered, or the settlement criteria remain undefined pending official MLS or platform confirmation. This is typical for "more markets" placeholders that depend on sportsbook or league-operator decisions about which props—corner counts, card totals, goal-scorer combinations—will actually be listed.
Historically, Toronto–New England matchups have produced volatile secondary-market pricing because the teams' form swings sharply within seasons. Toronto finished 2023 mid-table but strengthened their squad through 2024; New England has cycled between playoff contention and rebuilding phases, making head-to-head records less predictive than current league position and injury status. The 0% reading reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a strong directional view, since no settled comparable exists yet for this specific fixture's prop slate.
Traders should monitor team news through early August: Toronto's availability of key midfielders and New England's striker depth will reshape expected goal distributions and card risk. MLS typically confirms secondary-market slates 48–72 hours before kickoff. Any late injury announcements to either squad's starting eleven—particularly defensive absences—will shift corner and foul-play expectations. Settlement terms should be verified against official MLS data providers once the market definition is published.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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