Pronóstico: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians met on Friday, 26 June 2026, at 7:10pm ET in Cleveland, with the Mariners securing a 3-1 victory through Colt Emerson’s seventh-inning homer and J.P. Crawford’s go-ahead single [1][4]. This result caps a three-game series where Seattle outscored Cleveland 22-13, marking a sharp reversal from their opening-night clash in March when the Guardians won 6-4 [3][8].

Historically, a 100% crowd-implied probability for a single game outcome is exceptionally rare in MLB markets, as even dominant teams face variance from pitching rotations, bullpen fatigue, or weather delays. Comparable cases—such as the 2024 Yankees’ 12-game win streak—show that markets rarely lock in certainty until the final pitch, suggesting this 100% figure may reflect post-game settlement rather than pre-game prediction [8]. Traders should note that the settlement window ends 2026-07-03, confirming this market resolves after the series concludes, not before the first pitch.

Key catalysts include the Guardians’ home-record dip (19-17) versus the Mariners’ road struggles (19-22), plus any late-lineup changes for pitchers Cantillo or Strickland [1][2]. Watch for ESPN’s live updates on the next game at 4:10pm ET on 27 June, where Cleveland’s bullpen depth may be tested after Friday’s 3-1 loss [2]. No suspensions or injuries have been reported, but the Mariners’ 8-10 record in their last 18 games signals vulnerability if their starting rotation falters [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.