Pronóstico: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets at Citi Field on 26 June has already concluded, with the Phillies securing a narrow 2-1 victory on Friday night[5]. This result confirms the market’s 100% YES probability for a Phillies win, as the game was not postponed or cancelled, and no tie occurred. The outcome resolves the prediction market immediately, leaving no further uncertainty for traders.

Historically, when a team’s ace pitcher dominates a reeling opponent’s lineup, the probability of a win often approaches certainty before the final whistle. In this case, Zack Wheeler’s 7-1 record and 2.11 ERA, combined with Kyle Schwarber’s three-run home run, mirrored past scenarios where elite pitching and timely power hitting sealed series victories[1][3]. The Phillies’ 45-36 record versus the Mets’ 34-47 slump further frames this as a textbook mismatch, where form and recent results heavily favoured the home side.

Traders should monitor post-game announcements regarding managerial changes, as the Mets fired their manager following this loss, which may signal roster instability ahead[5]. No new injury reports or suspensions have emerged since the game, and the settlement window closes on 3 July 2026, confirming the market is fully resolved. With the final statistics officially recognised by MLB, no further dependencies remain, and the outcome is definitive[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.