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Pronóstico: MLB: Doubles Leader

Football snapshot for "Pronóstico: MLB: Doubles Leader" with form, lineup and platform comparison on a single page.

James Wood 28% Josh Jung 26% Kevin McGonigle 19% Willy Adames 10% Volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $26K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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Pronóstico: MLB: Doubles Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 28% 72% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 28% 72% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
James Wood28%
Josh Jung26%
Kevin McGonigle19%
Willy Adames10%
Matt Olson10%
Bobby Witt Jr.8%
Freddie Freeman7%
Ernie Clement5%
Ezequiel Tovar4%
Mauricio Dubón3%
Taylor Ward2%
Nico Hoerner2%
Bo Bichette2%
Bryan Reynolds2%
Francisco Lindor2%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.2%
Gavin Sheets1%
Casey Schmitt1%
Pete Alonso1%
Jarren Duran1%
Maikel Garcia1%
Pete Crow-Armstrong1%
Salvador Perez1%
Bryce Harper1%
Ian Happ1%
Juan Soto1%
George Springer1%
Corbin Carroll1%
Riley Greene1%
Colt Keith0%
Christian Walker0%
Adley Rutschman0%
Rhys Hoskins0%
Gabriel Moreno0%
Brent Rooker0%
CJ Abrams0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Aaron Judge0%
Andy Pages0%
Nick Kurtz0%
Yordan Alvarez0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Other0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 28% YES probability for Pronóstico: MLB: Doubles Leader. This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most doubles during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the offic…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: MLB: Doubles Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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