Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 49% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | 46% |
| O/U 8.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners meet in a late-season game with the market pricing Seattle as only a slight favourite, which fits a contest between two middling clubs rather than a clear mismatch. The crowd-implied **46% YES** on Detroit is close to a coin flip and sits a touch below recent sportsbook pricing, where Seattle has generally been around -125 to -155 and Detroit between +104 and +144 in published markets for this matchup.[1][2][4][5]
That probability is best read against the teams’ broader 2026 form: both have sat around the .480 mark, with Detroit near the middle of the AL Central and Seattle in the upper middle of the AL West, and neither club has built a strong playoff cushion.[1][3] Recent head-to-head pricing has also been fairly tight, with totals mostly in the 7.5 to 8.5 range, suggesting expectation of a lower-scoring game where starting pitching and bullpen usage can swing the result.[2][4][12]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any late lineup rest, and whether either club adjusts after the day’s roster news, because those factors have already moved the line in earlier Tigers-Mariners meetings this year.[10][15][16] Action Network and other books showed the Mariners taking the edge in moneyline markets on the eve of play, but the spread and total remained sensitive to pitching and run environment rather than a decisive team-quality gap.[4][12]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $82K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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