Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| NRFI | 48% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | 47% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| O/U 8.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 23% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners meet in Seattle with the crowd leaning slightly towards Detroit at **47% YES**, which is broadly in line with a close game rather than a clear favourite. Recent head-to-head results have been tight: Detroit took two of three in June, including a 5-4 win decided by a late two-run single off Andrés Muñoz, after also winning 7-3 and losing 4-0 in that set. [2][4][5]
That recent series is useful context because it shows the matchup has swung on small margins rather than sustained dominance. Seattle’s profile has been the stronger one on the season, with a better record, better home form, and much cleaner pitching indicators in the live game data, while Detroit’s offence has been more volatile but capable of bursts when it strings hits together. [1][6][10] The market at 47% suggests traders are weighting Seattle’s underlying edge, but not enough to ignore Detroit’s recent ability to take this exact matchup. [1][2][6]
The main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, starting pitchers, and any late injury or rest news before first pitch, because those can shift a game with this kind of narrow pricing. MLB’s game preview and live game pages are the primary places to check for the official starters and status updates as the night approaches, and the earlier ESPN preview noted that Detroit had several rotation and bullpen injuries on its ledger in June, including Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize on the injured list at that time. [6][10]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $469K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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