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Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 84% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 75% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 62% NRFI 58% Volume: $135K Liquidity: $1.6M Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
84% 16% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
84% 16% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.584%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.575%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.562%
NRFI58%
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics53%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.550%
O/U 10.547%
Spread -1.542%
O/U 11.539%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.539%
Spread -2.533%
O/U 12.533%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.532%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.532%
Spread -1.532%
Spread -2.523%
Extra Innings7%

Market context

Detroit and the Athletics meet again after the Tigers’ 13-1 rout on Friday and an 8-6 win on Saturday in West Sacramento, a sequence that has pushed the head-to-head firmly towards Detroit in late July and early August. Detroit have won multiple straight in this series, and the recent scorelines matter because they have not been narrow, one-run edge cases: the Tigers have outscored the Athletics comfortably while also getting meaningful production from the middle of the order and younger call-ups.[1][4][13]

That recent form is the main reason a 53% crowd-implied Detroit probability looks only moderately bullish rather than stretched. Detroit came into the weekend with a better run differential profile and a far stronger staff numbers, while the Athletics’ season-long pitching line remains one of the weaker ones in the league; the live market screen also had Detroit near a pick’em moneyline despite the road setting, which implies traders are already giving weight to the matchup and not just the standings gap.[11][12] Comparable late-series spots have leaned Tigers when they have controlled the previous game’s run expectancy and starting pitching has held up.[3][7]

The key catalysts are the confirmed starters and any late lineup changes. Reporting ahead of the game listed Keider Montero for Detroit against left-hander Gage Jump for the Athletics, a pairing that matters because Montero has been the steadier arm overall while Jump’s strikeout rate has come with some walk risk.[10] Traders should also watch for any rest news after Saturday’s game, especially around Detroit’s young bats and the Athletics’ catching/power core, because this is the final game in the set and any soft line-up on either side would move the win probability more than the already-known standings or venue.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 84% for "Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 84% Other 16%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $135K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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