Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 86% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 66% |
| NRFI | 59% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
Detroit’s meeting with the Athletics comes with the Tigers priced as the more likely winner, and the current crowd view at 56% YES sits close to the market line rather than flagging a clear misprice. ESPN’s pregame number has Detroit around -162, reflecting a modest but real edge, while the underlying recent form also leans Tigers: Detroit is 5-5 over its last 10 with a 4.06 ERA and has outscored opponents by seven, whereas Oakland is 3-7 with a 4.80 ERA and has been outscored by 15.[3]
The head-to-head context also matters. Detroit has already taken the recent season series with consecutive wins over the Athletics, including 6-2 on 7 July and 6-1 on 8 July, both games in which Oakland’s pitching was hit hard and the Tigers produced early offence.[2][4][8] More broadly, the Tigers have been better when their power shows up: ESPN notes they are 22-9 when they hit at least two home runs, which is relevant against an Athletics staff that has struggled to suppress damage.[3]
Traders should watch the confirmed line-ups and starting pitching, because MLB.com’s preview links Casey Mize to this game and that can move both moneyline and total pricing if the matchup changes.[6] The schedule also matters: this is the opener of a three-game series, so any late scratch, bullpen availability issue from the previous night, or weather-related delay would affect in-game state more than the headline probability.[3][16]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $186K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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