Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 89% |
| O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 11.5 | 81% |
| Spread -1.5 | 78% |
| Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 13% |
| Spread -1.5 | 4% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 1% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals have just played a tightly contested series at Busch Stadium, with St. Louis winning the opener 3-2 on 7 August and the Rockies losing despite collecting 10 hits and leaving runners on base.[5][10][17] That result fits the broader matchup trend: the Cardinals have historically dominated the head-to-head, leading the all-time series 135-112, and they have been especially strong at home, where they own a 77-47 record against Colorado.[1] Even so, the recent form is not one-sided in raw performance terms, with St. Louis sitting around .500 and Colorado well below it, which helps explain why a very high implied probability can still be sensitive to short-term line-up news rather than just season-long records.[3][4]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether the Rockies can stop their road slide and whether either club makes late changes after a low-scoring game the night before. Colorado entered the series with one of the weaker road marks in the league, while St. Louis had been roughly a .500 team with a modestly better recent run differential and a steadier home profile.[3][4][9] Injury and availability updates matter because both clubs have multiple regulars on the report: the Rockies have had Kris Bryant and other pitchers or depth pieces sidelined, while the Cardinals have had players such as Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman and Zack Thompson on the injured list, alongside day-to-day issues that can alter the batting order or bullpen usage.[4][9][18] The market will turn most on confirmed starters, whether either side rests bats after the series opener, and any late scratch that affects run production more than the underlying matchup does.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $221K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →