Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlas FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlas and Tigres meet in Liga MX on 15 August, with settlement tied to ancillary markets beyond the standard match result. The 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or sparse liquidity on secondary propositions—common for mid-season domestic fixtures where primary markets (win/draw/loss) absorb most trading activity. Tigres enter as favourites in most books, given their consistent top-four finishes and deeper squad rotation capacity, whilst Atlas have historically punched below their spending in recent campaigns, though they've shown volatility that can produce upsets against established sides.
Head-to-head records favour Tigres decisively over the past three seasons, with five wins to Atlas's one across their last seven encounters. However, Atlas's home record at Estadio Jalisco has tightened considerably since mid-2024, and Tigres' away form has softened—they've drawn two of their last four road matches. Injury news and team news typically emerge 48–72 hours before kickoff; monitor Liga MX official channels and club social media for confirmation of squad availability, as suspensions or late withdrawals can shift secondary market odds substantially.
The settlement window closing at 03:10 UTC on 16 August allows roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation. Traders should track pre-match odds movements on primary markets as proxies for shifting confidence, since secondary propositions often correlate with shifts in the underlying match expectation. Recent fixture congestion in Liga MX's schedule may affect rotation decisions, particularly for Tigres, who compete in continental competitions.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Atlas FC vs. Tigres de la UANL - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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