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Pronóstico: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 78% Game 1 Winner 69% Game 2 Winner 69% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Volume: $272K Liquidity: $600K Closes: 30 Jun 2026
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Pronóstico: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner78%
Game 1 Winner69%
Game 2 Winner69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
O/U 3.5 Games68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Game 3 Winner67%
Game 4 Winner63%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)60%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?53%
First Blood in Game 4?53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)31%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?31%
O/U 4.5 Games30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: lol: karmine corp vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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