Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 58% |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 22% |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) | 8% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 8% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ulsan HD FC host FC Anyang in a K League 1 match that the market is treating as a clear but not overwhelming Ulsan lean, with the crowd-implied probability for **YES** on “More Markets” at 8%. That sits well below the pricing on the match result markets, where Ulsan are listed around a 57% win chance and the draw is a live alternative, so the “more markets” set is being read as a secondary, event-driven angle rather than a pure home-win proxy.[1][5]
The historical frame points to a game that can stay tight if Ulsan do not convert early. Ulsan’s recent league form on 365Scores is mixed rather than dominant, with their last five recorded results shown as W-L-D-L-D, and the teams’ most recent head-to-head in April finished 0-0, which supports caution around markets that need multiple specific events rather than one clean favourite outcome.[2][18] Bookmakers are still shading towards goals, though, with both teams to score priced as a meaningful possibility and common correct-score lines clustering around 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1, which is consistent with a match that can turn on one line-up change or an early goal.[1][6]
For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed team sheets and any late absences in Ulsan’s defensive or attacking spine, because the current pricing leaves room for a line-up-driven move before kick-off.[4][16] Anyang’s availability news matters too: if they field a more conservative XI, the market can drift towards fewer “more markets” outcomes, while a stronger-than-expected away selection would support the higher-event side of the book. With the settlement window ending at 10:30 UTC, the final pre-match team announcements and any late market adjustment around total goals, both teams to score, or first-half angles are the main dependencies to watch.[1][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Anyang - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Anyang - More Markets on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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