Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Draw | 51% |
| Ulsan HD FC | 33% |
| FC Anyang | 19% |
Market context
Ulsan HD FC meet FC Anyang in K League 1 with the market leaning to a home result, but the crowd price at 33% YES still implies a sizeable edge to Anyang avoiding defeat or to the game landing outside a straightforward Ulsan win. The table context is tight: 365Scores has Ulsan fourth on 31 points from 20 matches and Anyang fifth on 30, with both sides separated by only one point and similar goal totals, which makes this a fixture where one team news item or tactical change can matter more than the raw league position suggests.[2]
The historical read is mixed rather than one-sided. The teams have met only a handful of times since 2025, with the head-to-head split almost evenly and low-scoring results recurring in the available records, including 1-1 draws and a narrow Anyang win in recent meetings.[1][11][14] That matters because the market is not pricing a dominant mismatch; it is pricing a match where Ulsan’s slightly stronger overall profile is being tested against a recent record that has not produced separation. Ulsan’s recent form is also uneven, while Anyang have generally been harder to beat, which supports a cautious interpretation of any short home-leaning move.[1][4][5]
The main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or suspension changes, and whether either side rotates after the league schedule squeeze. Sofascore and FotMob are the most useful live checks for the starting XI and absentees once they publish, because the market can swing quickly if Ulsan name a weakened attack or Anyang restore key defensive pieces.[3][7] Any late withdrawal from Ulsan’s front line would matter more than usual given their modest goal production in recent form, while Anyang’s away resilience means traders will be watching whether they keep their usual compact shape or push higher with confidence from their recent results.[2][4]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $154K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Anyang. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Anyang on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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