Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
Market context
Vladimir Osminkin’s meeting with Vlado Jankanj is an ITF-level clash between two players with limited proven upside, which helps explain why the crowd has marked it at 0% YES and why the market is effectively treating it as unresolved rather than strongly priced either way. Osminkin is 24 and listed by Tennis Explorer at around ATP 2203 in singles, with a modest 2026 record of 9-8 overall and 9-7 on hard courts, while TennisStats has him at 1-4 or 1-5 in 2026 depending on the match sample used, underlining how thin the form data is at this level.[1][2][3]
The historical framing is also narrow: TennisStats records no head-to-head between Osminkin and Jankanj, so there is no prior matchup to anchor expectations, and Tennis Explorer’s recent match log shows Osminkin arriving off a retirement entry on 5 August 2026.[1][10] That matters because ITF markets at this tier often move more on whether a player actually takes the court than on polished ranking edges, especially when both competitors are far outside the ATP main-tour picture and the sample size is small.[1][2]
For traders, the main catalysts are the official match status, any same-day reordering of the Kursumlijska Banja draw, and whether the retirement listed against Osminkin reflects a fit issue or just a one-off in-match stoppage.[1][5] Tennis Temple’s tournament page shows Jankanj scheduled for the opening round on Wednesday 5 August, which makes late scheduling changes, walkovers, or postponements the key drivers of a 50-50 outcome rather than the pre-match player profile alone.[5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vladimir Osminkin vs Vlado Jankanj. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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