Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
16% | 84% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
16% | 84% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spain 1 - 1 Argentina | 16% |
| Spain 1 - 0 Argentina | 12% |
| Spain 0 - 0 Argentina | 11% |
| Spain 0 - 1 Argentina | 9% |
| Spain 2 - 0 Argentina | 9% |
| Spain 2 - 1 Argentina | 9% |
| Spain 1 - 2 Argentina | 7% |
| Spain 2 - 2 Argentina | 6% |
| Any Other Score | 6% |
| Spain 0 - 2 Argentina | 5% |
| Spain 3 - 0 Argentina | 4% |
| Spain 3 - 1 Argentina | 4% |
| Spain 2 - 3 Argentina | 3% |
| Spain 1 - 3 Argentina | 2% |
| Spain 3 - 2 Argentina | 2% |
| Spain 0 - 3 Argentina | 1% |
| Spain 3 - 3 Argentina | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 16% probability to pronóstico: spain vs. argentina - exact score. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Spain vs. Argentina match originall…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Spain vs. Argentina - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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