Pronóstico: Egypt vs. IR Iran - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Group G match between Egypt and Iran, scheduled for 26 June at 11:00 PM ET in Seattle, where Egypt aims to secure the group top spot while Iran seeks knockout progression. Historical precedents for low-probability “more markets” in World Cup qualifiers show that when a team holds a clear advantage—such as Egypt’s 4 points versus Iran’s 2—and both have faced identical opposition (New Zealand), the implied 16% YES probability often reflects market caution rather than genuine uncertainty[2][3]. In similar Group-stage clashes where one side averages 2.77 xG versus the other’s 2.00, the “more markets” outcome typically hinges on late-game volatility rather than early dominance[4].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, particularly whether Mohamed Salah, who scored twice in Egypt’s qualification wrap-up, is confirmed for the starting XI, as his absence could shift the market toward Iran’s defensive resilience[9]. Key dependencies include injury updates on Iran’s midfield and any suspension news affecting Egypt’s attacking depth, alongside the final whistle timing relative to the 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z settlement window[5]. Recent reports confirm Egypt returned to training ahead of the decisive fixture, with no major injury concerns reported, while Iran’s form remains inconsistent after drawing 2-2 with New Zealand[4][9]. The head-to-head record shows no prior competitive meetings, making this a fresh tactical contest where late goals could drive the “more markets” outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Egypt vs. IR Iran - More Markets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.