Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5) | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score | 36% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) | 22% |
| O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord Rotterdam meet in an Eredivisie fixture that has usually tilted strongly towards the larger side in recent seasons, which matters when a separate “more markets” contract is priced at only 1% YES. Feyenoord have won 20 of 28 meetings since 2005, with Sparta taking four and four ending level, and the goal balance is heavily one-sided at 72–23 in Feyenoord’s favour.[1] Recent comparable games also lean away from an upset-driven market: the last five listed head-to-heads include a 3–0 Feyenoord win in February 2025 and a 1–1 draw at Sparta in August 2024, while the broader sample shows Sparta winning none of their last five against Feyenoord in one dataset and only two wins in the last 18 in another.[1][3][9]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late fitness omissions, and whether Feyenoord rotate after pre-season or European scheduling pressure, because those are the sort of team-news shocks that can shift niche player-, card- or goal-related submarkets more than the headline result. The latest public match pages still point to squad and line-up monitoring rather than settled selections, so the practical focus is on official team sheets shortly before kick-off and whether any starting attacker, goalkeeper or centre-back is ruled out after the warm-up window.[8][10] Sparta’s recent form data also offers a useful caution: one source lists them as winless in their last five, with two draws and three defeats, which supports the idea that any “more markets” angle needs a fairly specific pre-match catalyst to justify a move off the current 1% level.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Sparta Rotterdam vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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