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Pronóstico: York City FC vs. Crawley Town FC - More Markets

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: York City FC vs. Crawley Town FC - More Markets" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Crawley Town FC (-1.5) 100% O/U 0.5 100% O/U 1.5 100% 1st Half O/U 0.5 100% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $832K Closes: 3 Aug 2026
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Pronóstico: York City FC vs. Crawley Town FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Crawley Town FC (-1.5)100%
O/U 0.5100%
O/U 1.5100%
1st Half O/U 0.5100%
Crawley Town FC O/U 0.5100%
Crawley Town FC O/U 1.5100%
Crawley Town FC 1st Half O/U 0.5100%
2nd Half O/U 0.5100%
Crawley Town FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5100%
York City FC (-1.5)0%
York City FC (-2.5)0%
Crawley Town FC (-2.5)0%
O/U 2.50%
O/U 3.50%
O/U 4.50%
O/U 5.50%
Both Teams to Score0%
Both Teams to Score in First Half0%
1st Half O/U 1.50%
1st Half O/U 2.50%
York City FC O/U 0.50%
York City FC O/U 1.50%
York City FC O/U 2.50%
Crawley Town FC O/U 2.50%
York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.50%
York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.50%
Crawley Town FC 1st Half O/U 1.50%
Both Teams to Score in Second Half0%
2nd Half O/U 1.50%
2nd Half O/U 2.50%
York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.50%
York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.50%
Crawley Town FC 2nd Half O/U 1.50%

Market context

York City’s EFL Cup tie with Crawley Town sits in a genuinely awkward zone for traders because the market is being set before the usual line-up and team-news edges are fully visible, and the crowd-implied **0% YES** leaves little room for a “routine” price unless the market definition is very specific. The comparable record points to a low-margin game rather than a clear mismatch: the teams have met four times, with Crawley winning once and three draws, including a 2-2 draw in 2016 and a 1-0 Crawley win in 2015[13][18][15]. York also arrived into this fixture off a strong end to their National League campaign, while Crawley’s late-season League Two form included a 0-0 with Salford and a 3-3 draw at Accrington, so neither side was coming in on a long winning streak[2][5].

The main catalysts are the confirmed starting XIs and any late absences, because cup ties at this stage can swing sharply if either manager rotates heavily or protects key players ahead of the league programme. Sky Sports and LiveScore both had the match listed with live form and head-to-head pages on the day of the fixture, while BBC Sport carried live coverage, indicating the market is sensitive to information updates right up to kick-off[2][3][13]. Traders should also watch whether either side carries over pre-season knocks or suspensions into the cup squad, since a single change in the spine of the team can matter more here than the historical head-to-head gap.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: York City FC vs. Crawley Town FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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