Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| The Hundred: London Spirit vs Southern Brave - Completed match? | 100% |
| The Hundred: London Spirit vs Southern Brave | 0% |
| The Hundred: London Spirit vs Southern Brave - Who wins the toss? | 0% |
Market context
London Spirit and Southern Brave meet in The Hundred at Lord’s, with the market currently priced at **0% YES** even though the fixture is still scheduled and both sides have recent evidence of beating the other. London Spirit won the most recent men’s meeting between the teams by 47 runs at Lord’s in 2025, posting 186/4 before bowling Brave out for 139, while Brave had won the prior men’s fixture by seven wickets in 2024, which underlines how quickly the balance can swing in a short-format game.[3][7][8]
The longer frame is mixed rather than one-sided. Recent archive results also show Brave have been capable of suppressing Spirit at Lord’s in the women’s competition, including a five-wicket win in 2026 and earlier dominant away wins, so head-to-head history alone does not support a near-certainty either way.[5][6][9] ESPN’s 2026 pre-match page lists Spirit on 4 points and Brave on 4 points after the early rounds, with both in the middle of the table and still dependent on current form and net run-rate rather than reputation.[13]
For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed XIs, any late injury news, and the toss at Lord’s, where the home side’s recent big total and Brave’s earlier successful chase both suggest the match state matters more than the nominal price. BBC’s live coverage lists the venue as Lord’s and the scheduled start time as 14:30, while the official Lord’s fixture page confirms the same afternoon slot, so any last-minute changes to weather, availability or bowling attacks would be the main reasons for a move away from the current 0% reading.[2][14]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $318K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: The Hundred: London Spirit vs Southern Brave. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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