Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Beijing Guoan FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beijing Guoan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beijing Guoan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Beijing Guoan FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Beijing Guoan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Beijing Guoan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Beijing Guoan’s home meeting with Zhejiang Zhiye comes after a run of tight recent head-to-heads, with the sides drawing 0-0 in April and Beijing edging a 4-3 thriller in Hangzhou last August. Across the last five league meetings listed by ESPN, Beijing are unbeaten, but the margins have been thin: three of those five finished level or by a single goal, which is the sort of pattern that makes a big pre-match move in a “more markets” line harder to justify without fresh team news.[8][11]
The key context for traders is whether either side can field its first-choice attack and full-backs, because this fixture has recently swung on late changes rather than structural mismatch. Beijing’s current league line in ESPN’s matchup data shows 17 goals scored and 16 conceded from 10 matches, while Zhejiang have 12 scored and 15 conceded, which points to a game that can stay contained if both start conservatively.[8] Flashscore and FotMob both have the match scheduled for Workers’ Stadium at 11:35 UTC, and any last-minute confirmation of line-ups, suspensions, or withdrawals will matter more than the broader table positions.[1][12]
Recent form also argues for caution around a 0% crowd price. Beijing have mixed results in their last five league games, including a 4-2 home defeat to Tianjin and a 3-3 draw away at Yunnan, while Zhejiang’s profile has been similarly uneven, with their April draw against Beijing suggesting they can frustrate stronger opponents when the game is level early.[2][7] If either side rotates because of congestion or rests a scorer after the first XI leaks, that would be the most immediate catalyst for any repricing.[14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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