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Pronóstico: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 27.5 93% Spread -0.5 92% Spread -1.5 92% Spread -2.5 91% Volume: $108K Liquidity: $2.3M Closes: 6 Sept 2026
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Pronóstico: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 27.593%
Spread -0.592%
Spread -1.592%
Spread -2.591%
O/U 29.590%
Spread -3.589%
Spread -4.587%
Spread -5.586%
O/U 31.585%
Spread -6.584%
O/U 33.584%
Spread -7.580%
Spread -8.579%
O/U 35.579%
Wisconsin O/U 6.579%
Notre Dame O/U 25.578%
Notre Dame O/U 26.577%
Spread -10.576%
O/U 37.575%
Spread -13.572%
Notre Dame O/U 27.572%
O/U 39.570%
2H Spread -5.568%
Spread -14.567%
Notre Dame O/U 28.567%
2H Spread -4.567%
Wisconsin O/U 7.566%
Notre Dame O/U 29.566%
Spread -16.565%
2H Spread -6.564%
Wisconsin O/U 9.564%
O/U 41.563%
1H Spread -9.563%
1H Spread -8.563%
Notre Dame O/U 30.562%
Spread -17.561%
3Q Spread -2.560%
O/U 43.559%
2Q Spread -6.557%
Spread -20.556%
4Q Spread -2.556%
1H Spread -10.555%
Notre Dame O/U 31.555%
Notre Dame O/U 32.555%
1Q Spread -6.554%
Wisconsin O/U 10.554%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.554%
O/U 45.553%
2H Spread -7.553%
Notre Dame O/U 33.553%
2H Spread -8.552%
3Q Spread -6.552%
2H Spread -9.551%
1Q Spread -4.551%
1Q Moneyline51%
2Q Spread -9.551%
2Q Moneyline51%
3Q Spread -5.551%
4Q Spread -1.551%
4Q Spread -5.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 15.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 19.551%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 4.551%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 4.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 12.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 16.551%
Wisconsin O/U 1.551%
Notre Dame O/U 4.551%
Wisconsin O/U 12.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 21.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 13.551%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 15.551%
Wisconsin O/U 0.551%
Wisconsin O/U 1.551%
Notre Dame O/U 1.551%
Notre Dame O/U 2.551%
4Q Spread -6.551%
3Q Spread -8.551%
4Q Spread -8.551%
3Q Spread -0.551%
4Q Spread -0.551%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 18.551%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 5.551%
Cam Williams: Anytime Touchdown51%
Spread -21.550%
2H Moneyline50%
1H Spread -11.550%
1H Spread -12.550%
1Q Spread -5.550%
1Q Spread -8.550%
2Q Spread -5.550%
2Q Spread -8.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Moneyline50%
Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.550%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 14.550%
O/U 46.550%
Nolan James Jr.: Anytime Touchdown50%
James Flanigan: Anytime Touchdown50%
Notre Dame 2H O/U 11.550%
1Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Spread -7.550%
Wisconsin O/U 2.550%
Wisconsin O/U 3.550%
Notre Dame O/U 0.550%
Notre Dame O/U 3.550%
2Q Spread -4.550%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 20.550%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 22.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 7.550%
Wisconsin 2H O/U 9.550%
1H Spread -13.549%
3Q Spread -4.549%
4Q Spread -3.549%
4Q Spread -4.549%
Notre Dame O/U 34.549%
Notre Dame 1H O/U 17.548%
O/U 47.546%
Wisconsin O/U 13.545%
2H Spread -10.544%
2Q Spread -7.543%
Spread -24.541%
2H Spread -11.541%
Notre Dame O/U 35.541%
O/U 49.540%
Notre Dame O/U 36.539%
Aneyas Williams: Anytime Touchdown39%
Notre Dame O/U 37.538%
1H Spread -14.538%
Spread -27.536%
1H Spread -15.536%
O/U 51.535%
1H Spread -16.535%
Wisconsin O/U 15.534%
1Q Spread -7.532%
O/U 53.531%
Wisconsin O/U 16.531%
Notre Dame O/U 39.531%
Notre Dame O/U 38.530%
Notre Dame O/U 40.528%
O/U 55.526%
Kedren Young: Anytime Touchdown26%
Spread -31.524%
Wisconsin O/U 18.524%
Wisconsin O/U 19.523%
Jordan Faison: Anytime Touchdown23%
4Q Spread -7.523%
O/U 57.522%
Spread -34.519%
Cooper Flanagan: Anytime Touchdown19%
Colton Joseph: Anytime Touchdown18%
CJ Carr: Anytime Touchdown17%
Abu Sama III: Anytime Touchdown17%
O/U 59.516%
O/U 61.516%
Jaden Greathouse: Anytime Touchdown15%
Mylan Graham: Anytime Touchdown15%
Micah Gilbert: Anytime Touchdown15%
Darrion Dupree: Anytime Touchdown14%
O/U 63.512%
1H Moneyline12%
Eugene Hilton Jr.: Anytime Touchdown11%
O/U 65.510%
Chris Brooks Jr.: Anytime Touchdown9%
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame8%
O/U 67.58%
Jacob Harris: Anytime Touchdown8%
Jaylon Domingeaux: Anytime Touchdown8%
Matt Jeffery: Anytime Touchdown8%
Elijah Burress: Anytime Touchdown8%
Tyrell Henry: Anytime Touchdown8%
Malachi Coleman: Anytime Touchdown7%
Shamar Rigby: Anytime Touchdown5%
Ryan Schwendeman: Anytime Touchdown4%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: wisconsin vs. notre dame stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 6 at 7:30PM ET: If Wisconsin wins, the market will resolve to "Wisconsin". If Notre Dame wins, the market will resolv…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 27.5 at 93% for "Pronóstico: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame".

O/U 27.5 93% Other 7%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
and

Trade Pronóstico: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame on Mundial 2026 Grupos

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