Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 78% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| O/U 38.5 | 74% |
| O/U 42.5 | 70% |
| Toledo O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 68% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 60% |
| Toledo O/U 23.5 | 59% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| O/U 52.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toledo O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State vs. Toledo | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 56.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Spread -12.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| O/U 66.5 | 32% |
| O/U 68.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -11.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 13% |
Market context
San Diego State vs. Toledo. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 47% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T16:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $728K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: San Diego State vs. Toledo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Trade Pronóstico: San Diego State vs. Toledo on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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