Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 38.5 | 90% |
| O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| O/U 42.5 | 85% |
| O/U 44.5 | 81% |
| O/U 46.5 | 78% |
| Baylor O/U 18.5 | 76% |
| O/U 48.5 | 74% |
| Baylor O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| Auburn O/U 26.5 | 74% |
| O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| Auburn O/U 27.5 | 71% |
| Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Baylor O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| Auburn O/U 28.5 | 66% |
| O/U 52.5 | 65% |
| Baylor O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Auburn O/U 29.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| O/U 54.5 | 62% |
| Baylor O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| Auburn O/U 30.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| Baylor O/U 23.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| O/U 56.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Auburn O/U 31.5 | 55% |
| O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Auburn O/U 32.5 | 53% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Auburn O/U 33.5 | 52% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Baylor 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Baylor 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Baylor O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Auburn O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Dawson Pendergrass: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Gavin Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Louis Brown IV: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Drelon Miller: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| DJ Lagway: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jadon Porter: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jake Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| DeShawn Spencer: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Baylor O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Byrum Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah Cobb: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keshaun Singleton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Caden Knighten: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bryson Washington: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Omar Mabson II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah Koger: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chas Nimrod: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Turner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Neptune: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tony Livingston: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matthew Klopfenstein: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Baylor O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| O/U 59.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 60.5 | 46% |
| Auburn O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Spread: Auburn (-7.5) | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| Baylor O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 62.5 | 40% |
| Auburn O/U 35.5 | 40% |
| Auburn O/U 36.5 | 39% |
| O/U 64.5 | 37% |
| Baylor O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| Auburn O/U 37.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Baylor O/U 29.5 | 35% |
| Baylor O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Baylor vs. Auburn | 31% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| O/U 66.5 | 31% |
| Auburn O/U 38.5 | 29% |
| O/U 68.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Auburn O/U 40.5 | 28% |
| Auburn O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| Baylor O/U 31.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| Baylor O/U 32.5 | 26% |
| O/U 70.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| O/U 72.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 74.5 | 18% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| O/U 76.5 | 16% |
| Spread -24.5 | 14% |
| O/U 78.5 | 12% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
Market context
Pronóstico: Baylor vs. Auburn — current market-implied probability: 90%. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Baylor wins, the market will resolve to "Baylor". If Auburn wins, the market will resolve to "Auburn". If the game is …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $107K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Baylor vs. Auburn. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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Trade Pronóstico: Baylor vs. Auburn on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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