Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 89% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 Winner | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 Winner | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Game Spread +/-3.5 | 35% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 33% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 17% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: us open atp: jurij rodionov vs giovanni mpetshi perricard stands at 89% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Jurij Rodionov and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: US Open ATP: Jurij Rodionov vs Giovanni … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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