Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud. This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Casper Ruud in the Swiss Open, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel C…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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