Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 84% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 78% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 40.5 | 69% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 60% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 45% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 38.5 | 44% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 27% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 24% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 12% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: wimbledon atp: felix auger-aliassime vs alejandro davidovich fokina stands at 84% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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