Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca. This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Joao Fonseca in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roberto B…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao Fonseca. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs … on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →